Severe Weather
There appears to be a chance of a few severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon across mainly northeast PA and south central New York. Increasing low level moisture on the back side of a departing ridge will increase instability across the area. The image above shows the SREF probability of Most Unstable Capes being greater than 1000 j/kg. You can see there is a pretty good chance of this happening across PA. So the instability will be present, we just need a forcing mechanism and wind shear. The forcing looks meager at best with no upper level support. At the surface there will be a weak front helping to aid convergence, but this will not be enough to allow for widespread thunderstorms. wind shear will be rather weak, but will be highest the further north you go with SREFs showing near 
40kts of 0-6km shear near the NY-PA border. The next image shows the combined probability of 500 j/kg of CAPE and 0-6 km shear greater than 30kts and convective precip greater than .01. This pinpoints the highest probabilities over northeast PA and south central New York. It is hear where the combination of CAPE and wind shear may allow for some storms to briefly organize and approach severe limits. The overall severe threat will depend on the amount of sunshine and how high dew points can get. Across the rest of PA expect some afternoon popcorn thunderstorms, but given lack of wind shear and weak winds aloft think overall severe threat is low. So overall, I am not expecting a big severe outbreak, but instead think we will see a few to several reports across the previously mentioned areas. I'll leave you with an image showing the SREF probability of severe weather. I have been looking at this product a lot recently it seems to do a very good job of pinpointing possible severe weather areas.
40kts of 0-6km shear near the NY-PA border. The next image shows the combined probability of 500 j/kg of CAPE and 0-6 km shear greater than 30kts and convective precip greater than .01. This pinpoints the highest probabilities over northeast PA and south central New York. It is hear where the combination of CAPE and wind shear may allow for some storms to briefly organize and approach severe limits. The overall severe threat will depend on the amount of sunshine and how high dew points can get. Across the rest of PA expect some afternoon popcorn thunderstorms, but given lack of wind shear and weak winds aloft think overall severe threat is low. So overall, I am not expecting a big severe outbreak, but instead think we will see a few to several reports across the previously mentioned areas. I'll leave you with an image showing the SREF probability of severe weather. I have been looking at this product a lot recently it seems to do a very good job of pinpointing possible severe weather areas.
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